Wednesday | July 2, 2025
Dharamshala, India / Hong Kong — The Dalai Lama has announced that the centuries-old tradition of reincarnation that defines his spiritual lineage will continue after his death, a declaration that is expected to intensify the geopolitical struggle between the Tibetan exile leadership and the Chinese Communist Party over the future of Tibet.
In a pre-recorded video message delivered Wednesday to an assembly of senior Tibetan Buddhist elders in Dharamshala — the Indian hill town that has served as the seat of the Tibetan government-in-exile since the 14th Dalai Lama fled his homeland in 1959 — the 88-year-old Nobel Peace Prize laureate affirmed that his spiritual legacy will endure.
“I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue,” he said, explaining that his decision was made after years of appeals from Tibetans and followers of Tibetan Buddhism around the world, who view the Dalai Lama as both a spiritual guide and a symbol of Tibetan identity. “The Gaden Phodrang Trust has sole authority to recognize the future reincarnation; no one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter,” he added, referring to the traditional governing body of the Dalai Lama’s institution.
While he stopped short of offering concrete details about the method or timeline for identifying his reincarnation, the Dalai Lama emphasized that the search for his successor would be conducted “in accordance with past tradition.” Traditionally, this involves a process of divination, signs, and consultations with senior lamas to identify a child believed to be the reincarnation of the deceased spiritual leader.
The statement arrives just days before the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday and carries profound political implications. In recent years, the Chinese government — which regards Tibet as an integral part of its territory and dismisses the Dalai Lama as a separatist — has declared that only Beijing has the right to recognize reincarnated lamas, including the next Dalai Lama. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has already taken steps to control similar religious appointments, most notably the controversial installation of their own Panchen Lama, a key religious figure in Tibetan Buddhism, after detaining the Dalai Lama’s chosen candidate in 1995.
The prospect of dueling dalai lamas — one chosen by Tibetan Buddhists in exile and the other appointed by Beijing — now looms large. In a memoir published in March, the Dalai Lama reiterated his belief that his successor will be born in the “free world,” outside of Chinese control, and urged his followers to reject any figure endorsed by the Chinese government.
Such a scenario could mirror the division created by rival Panchen Lamas and would almost certainly exacerbate tensions between Beijing and the global Tibetan diaspora.
“Both the Tibetan exile community and the Chinese government want to influence the future of Tibet, and they see the next Dalai Lama as the key to do so,” said Ruth Gamble, a scholar of Tibetan Buddhism and history at La Trobe University in Australia. “The stakes could not be higher — spiritually, culturally, and politically.”
Adding to the secrecy and sensitivity surrounding the matter, Samdhong Rinpoche, a senior aide to the Dalai Lama and a prominent figure in Tibetan religious and political circles, said during Wednesday’s event that no additional information regarding the succession process would be disclosed until after the current Dalai Lama’s death.
With the aging spiritual leader in increasingly fragile health, the question of his reincarnation — and who gets to decide it — is rapidly becoming one of the most consequential religious and political issues in Asia, with global implications for religious freedom, indigenous rights, and China’s expanding influence.
Struggle over succession
Over the course of his decades in exile, the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, has become the living symbol of Tibet and its enduring struggle for genuine autonomy under China’s tightening grip. From his base in Dharamshala, India—where he established a government-in-exile after fleeing the Chinese crackdown in 1959—the Dalai Lama has rallied the Tibetan people, both inside Tibet and across the global diaspora, fostering a sense of unity and resilience in the face of Beijing’s repression. Through tireless advocacy, he has brought Tibet’s plight onto the international stage, becoming one of the world’s most recognizable spiritual leaders.
That global stature has long made him a thorn in the side of the Chinese Communist Party, which portrays him as a subversive “separatist” bent on undermining China’s sovereignty, even branding him a “wolf in monk’s robes.” Despite such accusations, the Dalai Lama has, since the 1970s, pursued a pragmatic approach, no longer demanding full independence but instead calling for “meaningful autonomy” that would allow Tibetans to safeguard their unique culture, language, religion, and way of life. His consistent embrace of nonviolence and dialogue—known as the “Middle Way” approach—earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989 and broad admiration from leaders and civil society around the world.
Yet one of the deepest sources of tension between the Dalai Lama and Beijing lies in the ancient Tibetan tradition of reincarnation. In Tibetan Buddhism, it is believed that enlightened spiritual masters, such as the Dalai Lama, are reborn in a new body after death to continue their work for the benefit of all beings. The identification of such reincarnations follows a rigorous and mystical process, guided by signs, visions, and consultations with high-ranking lamas. This tradition is not merely religious—it is a central pillar of Tibetan identity and authority.
Beijing, however, sees the reincarnation system as a political vulnerability—and an opportunity. The Chinese government has increasingly sought to assert control over the appointment of high lamas, turning the spiritual process into a tool of state power. The most glaring example came in 1995, when the Dalai Lama identified a six-year-old boy as the reincarnation of the 10th Panchen Lama, the second most important figure in Tibetan Buddhism. Shortly after, the boy was detained by Chinese authorities and vanished from public view. In his place, Beijing appointed its own Panchen Lama, who is rejected by many Tibetans as illegitimate. The case has become a symbol of the wider assault on religious freedom in Tibet.
The Dalai Lama and his followers fear that history will repeat itself. Experts say Beijing is likely to attempt a similar maneuver when the current Dalai Lama passes away—naming its own successor while suppressing any rival candidate chosen by the Tibetan Buddhist community. “There’s a whole series of high-level reincarnated lamas cultivated by the Chinese government to work with it inside Tibet,” said Ruth Gamble, a scholar of Tibetan history. “(Beijing) will call on all of those to help establish the Dalai Lama that they pick inside Tibet. There’s been a long-term plan to work toward this.”
Indeed, China has made no secret of its intention to regulate the reincarnation process. The government insists that all “Living Buddhas”—a term for reincarnated Tibetan lamas—must be recognized through state-approved procedures conducted within China and in accordance with Chinese law. This bureaucratic control over a deeply spiritual and ancient tradition is widely seen as part of Beijing’s broader campaign to sinicize religion and bring Tibetan Buddhism fully under state control.
In response, Tibetan Buddhist leaders meeting in Dharamshala this week issued a “resolution of gratitude,” voicing unequivocal opposition to Beijing’s claims. The statement condemned the Chinese government’s “usage of the reincarnation subject for their political gain” and declared that any appointment made under Chinese authority would never be accepted.
The Dalai Lama himself has been equally clear. In his recent memoir Voice for the Voiceless, he wrote that any successor named by Beijing would be a political fabrication, devoid of legitimacy in the eyes of the Tibetan people. “It is totally inappropriate for Chinese Communists, who explicitly reject religion, including the idea of past and future lives, to meddle in the system of reincarnation of lamas, let alone that of the Dalai Lama,” he stated.
As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday, the question of who will succeed him is not just a matter of religious continuity—it is a high-stakes contest over the future of Tibet itself. With China determined to impose its will and Tibetan exiles vowing to protect the integrity of their tradition, the stage is set for a profound and potentially divisive confrontation that may shape the spiritual and political landscape of the Himalayan region for generations to come.