Sunday | February 23, 2025
Voting began Sunday in Germany’s general election, with opinion polls indicating the country is set for a new chancellor and a reshaped governing coalition.
While German elections are typically predictable and uneventful, this campaign has been anything but. Last November, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) abruptly dismissed his finance minister. Soon after, Scholz lost a vote of confidence, leading to early parliamentary elections.
The race took an unexpected turn when Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a known ally of the Trump administration, entered the fray by endorsing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). His involvement ignited a nationwide debate over Germany’s reckoning with its 20th-century past. In response, the chancellor condemned Musk’s support for far-right politicians in Europe as “disgusting.”
Meanwhile, the AfD is poised to make history, with polls suggesting it could become Germany’s second-largest political force—an unprecedented feat for a far-right party since the Nazi era.
Two major issues have defined the election: tackling mass migration and revitalizing Germany’s struggling economy.
Who are the main candidates for chancellor?
FRIEDRICH MERZ
Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) — the party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel — has long been the frontrunner in this election. With the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, consistently polling above 30%, the Union bloc appears poised to reclaim its position as Germany’s dominant political force.
Merz has steered the CDU toward a significantly tougher stance on immigration, marking a sharp departure from Merkel’s open-border policies. In the final stretch of the campaign, he made immigration a central issue—so much so that critics accused him of signaling a willingness to collaborate with the far-right.
In January, he sparked national outrage by attempting to push legislation through the Bundestag that would impose stricter immigration controls. His move broke a long-standing taboo in German politics by relying on potential AfD support—though the bill ultimately failed. The controversy triggered mass protests across German cities.
Despite this, Merz has repeatedly denied any intention of working with the AfD. Speaking at a CDU party congress in early February, he told CNN, “They are against everything we stand for, everything we have built in the Federal Republic of Germany. There is no cooperation with this party.”
Merz is no stranger to German politics, though this marks his second political career. He first served as a member of the European Parliament (MEP) from 1989 to 1994 before joining the Bundestag, where he represented the CDU until 2009. He then left politics for the private sector, working as a corporate lawyer and sitting on the supervisory board of investment giant BlackRock.
Now representing his hometown of Brilon, Merz is widely known to be a millionaire and a licensed private pilot. After two unsuccessful bids for CDU leadership in 2018 and 2021, he finally secured the top position in 2022.
ALICE WEIDEL
Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-leader and candidate for chancellor, is a fierce opponent of immigration.
The AfD had a strong showing in 2024, making significant gains in regional elections. It became the largest party in Thuringia—an unprecedented feat for a far-right party since the Nazi era—and finished a close second in another regional race.
Nationally, the party’s momentum has held steady. Since the snap election was called, the AfD has consistently polled in second place with around 20%, showing little fluctuation.
At a massive AfD rally where Elon Musk joined via video link, Weidel told CNN that one of her first priorities as chancellor would be “closing our borders, controlling them, and then sending out all the illegals.” She refers to this approach as “remigration,” a term widely associated with Nazi-era policies.
OLAF SCHOLZ
The incumbent chancellor’s party, the SPD, is at risk of becoming the biggest loser in this election.
After emerging as the largest party in 2021, opinion polls suggest the SPD is heading for a steep decline—losing around 10 percentage points. That would leave it not only trailing the AfD but locked in a battle with the Greens for third place.
Scholz initially rose to power on a wave of post-Merkel optimism, but his “traffic light” coalition has been plagued by infighting from the start. Many of those disputes spilled into the public eye, leaving voters frustrated with the government’s constant turmoil.
As a result, Scholz and his party have suffered a sharp drop in popularity. A poll last September ranked him as the least popular German chancellor since reunification. His standing was so weak that, just before the election season gained momentum, rumors swirled that the SPD was considering replacing him with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius as its chancellor candidate.
ROBERT HABECK
The Green Party, currently polling at around 13% nationally, is another key player to watch in this election.
While unlikely to secure enough votes to become the largest party, the Greens could play a crucial role in shaping the next government. Their candidate for chancellor, Robert Habeck, serves as Germany’s economics minister and may find himself at the center of coalition negotiations once the results are in.
What are the main issues?
Immigration has dominated this election, fueled in part by a series of high-profile attacks allegedly carried out by asylum seekers or migrants.
In response, Chancellor Scholz recently reintroduced border checks with neighboring European countries—a move widely seen as an attempt to appeal to voters shifting toward the populist AfD.
Running a close second as a key issue is the economy. Once Europe’s economic powerhouse, Germany has been stagnating, with a growing consensus that major reforms are needed.
In January, Germany’s Federal Statistics Office reported that the country’s GDP had contracted for the second consecutive year—shrinking by 0.2% in 2024 after a 0.3% decline in 2023. While many of the economic challenges stem from global factors beyond Scholz’s control, voters see his government as having done little to reverse the downturn.
One major factor is Russia’s war in Ukraine. In response to the invasion, Germany ended its long-standing dependence on Russian gas, leading to energy shortages and rising costs. Meanwhile, growing competition from China in the automotive sector—a key pillar of Germany’s economy—and the looming threat of a trade crisis with a potentially combative Trump administration have only added to economic uncertainty.
Reviving the country’s crucial automotive industry is expected to be central to economic discussions. The German Central Bank has warned that the industry is facing “structural” problems that are worsening the country’s economic slowdown. Major automakers like Volkswagen—one of the world’s largest car manufacturers—are now bracing for potential mass layoffs and plant closures.
What are the possible outcomes?
Germany’s governments are almost always built through coalitions, as no single party typically secures the 50%-plus majority needed to govern alone. This election will be no exception, with multiple coalition possibilities on the table.
The party that wins the most votes will need to find a partner—or multiple partners—to form a governing majority, but the process can take weeks or even months.
One near certainty, however, is that the AfD will be excluded from any coalition. Mainstream parties across the political spectrum have made it clear they will not partner with the far-right group.
In a unique feature of German politics, coalitions are often given colorful names based on the parties involved. The outgoing government, led by the SPD (red), alongside the Greens (green) and the Free Democrats (yellow), was known as the “traffic light” coalition.
One thing is clear: when the polls close on Sunday night, Germany’s next government will still be far from settled.